Social Housing on the Dynamics of Gentrification by Maximilian Günnewig-Mönert

Join us for the latest Applied Economics Research Seminar Series event, Autumn Term 2025.

Maximilian Günnewig-Mönert, from the University of Cologne, will present this week's seminar on Social Housing on the Dynamics of Gentrification.

Abstract

We study the consequences of expiring social housing contracts on neighborhood dynamics in Berlin. When affordability covenants expire, subsidized units return to the private market, potentially altering local housing market dynamics through higher prices, increased mobility, and changes in neighborhood composition. We exploit the staggered, contract-length–driven roll-off of Germany’s Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) programme between 2010 and 2020 to quantify the effects of these expirations. Using high-resolution administrative data and a difference-in-differences event-study design that accounts for heterogeneous treatment timing, we show that the average loss of 43 regulated dwellings per tract increases advertised rents by 4–5%, triggers additional renovation activity, and induces selective in-migration of higher-income, lower-risk, and more ethnically native residents. These results highlight how the structure and duration of housing subsidies shape long-run affordability, gentrification, and urban inequality.

The seminar will begin with a presentation and will end with a Q and A session.

It will be held in the Economics Common Room at 2pm on Thursday, 4 December 2025. This event is open to all levels of study and is also open to the public. To register your place and gain access to the webinar, please contact the seminar organisers.

This event is part of the Applied Economics Research Seminar Series.