Areas of specialism
- Statistics and causal inference using observational data
- Machine learning prediction
- Political science; political violence, nonviolent resistance and United Nations peacekeeping
Dr Luke Abbs is a political scientist and data scientist. He deploys applied analytics to inform key policy questions, turning data into knowledge and knowledge into impact. His expertise is in prediction, using statistical methods and supervised machine learning techniques. Luke’s role is two-fold: to inform policy questions from local government and charities and to aid the prediction of political conflict within the academic field of political science.
Luke’s current academic research agenda is focused on developing two important bodies of conflict research (a sub-field of Political Science). The first focuses on analysing armed violence and the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping at the subnational-level. This currently consists of the analysis of violence and UN peacekeeping across three separate case-studies: Darfur, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The second explores the emergence and dynamics of nonviolent resistance campaigns and the impact that mass nonviolent resistance has on ongoing civil war and peace processes.
His more general research interests include: civil war, peace processes, non-state armed actors, nonviolent resistance, UN peacekeeping and mixed methods (i.e. spatial analysis, and combining qualitative, statistical and/or machine learning approaches).
How you bring data to life
I collaborate with the public sector to explore why health outcomes have deteriorated and use predictive analytics armed conflict using the UN’s peacekeeping data.
What you bring to the Centre
I use a combination of research methods to explore diverse research questions, including casual analysis using statistics, predictive analytics using machine learning and qualitative methods such as process tracing. I also have expertise in analysing geographical data and mapping spatial data using GIS software.