Dr Jackie Wong Siaw Tze

Department of Mathematical Sciences
Dr Jackie Wong Siaw Tze



My primary research interest includes the application of Bayesian methodology in mortality forecasting in the presence of overdispersion. Overdispersion in a mortality data is induced by several mortality-linked factors, (eg. smoking behaviours, diets, socio-economic factors), causing mortality heterogeneities across individuals. Our project focused on developing a coherent method of projecting mortality with overdispersion incorporating various sources of uncertainty by employing the MCMC methods. I also have a range of interests in Bayesian computation statistics, particularly those involving model selection and adaptive MCMC methods. My current interest is in the application of machine learning algorithms in actuarial science.


  • PhD Statistics/Actuarial Science University of Southampton,

  • BSc (Hons) in Mathematics with Actuarial Science University of Southampton,


University of Essex

  • Lecturer in Actuarial Science, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Essex (10/5/2019 - present)

Other academic

  • Teaching fellow in Statistics, University of Leeds (1/10/2018 - 9/5/2019)

  • Lecturer in Actuarial Science, University of Southampton (5/1/2017 - 1/10/2018)

Research and professional activities

Research interests

Mortality modelling and forecasting

Open to supervise

Bayesian computational statistics

Open to supervise

Bayesian model comparison

Open to supervise

Estimation of marginal likelihoods (bridge sampling)

Open to supervise

Machine learning in actuarial science

Open to supervise

Teaching and supervision

Current teaching responsibilities

  • Contingencies I (MA212)

  • Contingencies II (MA312)


Journal articles (4)

Abel, GJ. and Wong Siaw Tze, J., Calculate normalising constants for Bayesian time series models

Wong Siaw Tze, J., Forster, JJ. and Smith, PWF., (2020). Properties of the bridge sampler with a focus on splitting the MCMC sample. Statistics and Computing. 30 (4), 799-816

Wong, JST., Forster, JJ. and Smith, PWF., (2018). Bayesian mortality forecasting with overdispersion. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 83, 206-221

Abel, GJ., Bijak, J., Forster, JJ., Raymer, J., Smith, PWF. and Wong, JST., (2013). Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model. Demographic Research. 29 (1), 1187-1226

Thesis dissertation (1)

Wong, JST., (2017). Bayesian estimation and model comparison for mortality forecasting

+44 (0) 1206 873036


2.409, Colchester Campus