Essex expert helps identify worst case impact of space weather

The University of Essex's Professor John Preston has helped shape a major report exploring the potential impact of extreme space weather, including powerful solar storms.

The multi-university study examines how disturbances caused by the Sun can disrupt life on Earth.

These events, known as space weather, affect the Earth’s upper atmosphere and the space around it, with the potential to interfere with critical technologies and, in rare cases, human health.

The report highlights a wide range of systems that could be affected, including:

• Power networks
• Satellite navigation systems (such as GPS)
• Aircraft and spacecraft operations
• Radio communications and control systems

Researchers focused on identifying the most serious but plausible scenarios, outlining what we know about these risks, and where further research is needed.

Space weather originates from activity on the Sun.

Periods of heightened risk can be anticipated to some extent by monitoring solar activity, but predicting the exact timing and impact remains extremely difficult.

Severe events could last up to two weeks, based on how long active regions on the Sun take to rotate into alignment with Earth.

During these periods, multiple disruptions could happen at once or in quick succession.

Because modern systems are so interconnected, failures in one area, such as power, could trigger knock-on effects elsewhere, creating wider disruption.

Professor Preston, who is an expert on the sociology of emergencies and existential threats, said the social consequences of a major solar storm could be significant: “Power cuts, internet outages and disruption to transport and food supplies are all possible in a worst-case scenario.

“These impacts are likely to be felt most by those with the least access to resources and support.”

While widespread unrest is considered unlikely, the report suggests some groups could respond in more extreme ways.

Misinformation and conspiracy theories could spread rapidly during a major event, potentially fuelling panic or reinforcing beliefs about apocalyptic or “end of the world” scenarios.

Professor Preston added: “Some fringe groups already interpret space events as signs of major global change. In extreme cases, this could influence behaviour in unpredictable ways.”

Researchers point to historical examples, such as the Heaven's Gate cult, whose members died in 1997 following beliefs linked to the Hale–Bopp comet.

The report concludes that while extreme space weather events are rare, their potential impact is wide-ranging. Improving forecasting, strengthening infrastructure, and understanding social responses will all be key to reducing future risk.