Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications

Join us for this week's Department of Economics Research Seminar, Autumn Term 2020.

Dr Kirill Borusyk from the Department of Economics, at the University College London will present their research on Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications.

Abstract

We develop new tools for causal inference in settings where exogenous shocks affect the treatment status of multiple observations jointly, to different extents. In these settings researchers may construct treatments or instruments that combine the shocks with predetermined measures of shock exposure. Examples include measures of spill overs in social and transportation networks, simulated eligibility instruments, and shift-share instruments. We show that leveraging the exogeneity of shocks for identification generally requires a simple but non-standard recentering, derived from the specification of counterfactual shocks that might as well have been realized. We further show how specification of counterfactual shocks can be used for finite-sample inference and specification tests, and we characterize the recentered instruments that are asymptotically efficient. We use this framework to estimate the employment effects of Chinese market access growth due to high-speed rail construction and the insurance coverage effects of expanded Medicaid eligibility.

This seminar will be held on Zoom. This event is open to all levels of study and is also open to the public. To register your place and gain access to the webinar, please contact the seminar organisers.

This event is part of the Department of Economics Research Seminar Series.