Recession Managers and Mutual Fund Performance

Seminar abstract

This research finds that fund managers who began their careers during recessions (i.e. recession managers) produce superior returns.

However, their excess performance is time varying, as while they exhibit better market timing in recessions than their no-recession counterparts, they do not show better stock picking in booms.

This study explores in detail how managers time the market and find that recession managers hold more cash and tilt their investments towards defensive, rather than cyclical, industries in recession periods.

It is also found that funds managed by recession managers increase portfolio holdings of defensive stocks before the economic downturn starts.

Overall, the findings support the argument that the economic conditions under which an individual initially entered the labour market have a long-term impact on the career outcomes and decision making.

Booking

This seminar is free to attend with no need to book in advance. Please bring your colleagues, friends and classmates along.

Speaker bio

Dr Wei Song is an Associate Professor in Finance at Southampton Business School.

Prior to joining Southampton in 2019, he was a lecturer in finance at Swansea University, a teaching fellow in finance at Durham University, and a Strategic Investment Manager at SinoChem in China.

Dr Song's research interests mainly focus on empirical corporate finance and corporate governance, including;

• banks
• mergers and acquisitions
• executive compensation
• board composition
• corporate payout policy
• corporate social responsibility

He is also interested in mutual fund management and stock price behaviour in emerging markets.

Wei's work has been published / featured in the following journals;

• Journal of Corporate Finance
• Journal of Banking and Finance
• Journal of Empirical Finance
• Harvard Business Review