Rate My Team - How to build a fantasy football points projection model

  • Thu 31 Oct 19

    14:00 - 16:00

  • Colchester Campus

    STEM Centre 3.1

  • Event speaker

    Chris Atkinson

  • Event type

    Lectures, talks and seminars
    Mathematical Sciences Departmental Seminar

  • Event organiser

    Mathematical Sciences, Department of

  • Contact details

    Andrew Harrison

Mathematical Sciences departmental seminar

These Departmental Seminars are for everyone interested in Maths. We encourage anyone interested in the subject in general, or in the particular subject of the seminar, to come along. It's a great opportunity to meet people in the Maths Department and join in with our community. 

Refreshments are shared in the Department (STEM 5.1) after every seminar.

Rate My Team - How to build a fantasy football points projection model

Chris Atkinson (www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk)

In this talk, Chris will explain the history of, and methodology behind, his ‘Rate My Team’ Fantasy Premier League points projection model, which he first built in 2011 using the statistical programming language ‘R’.

Chris will explain the three main components of updating this model, as well as how they all tie together:

  • the team model (how strong each team's attack and defence are, as well as how big home advantage is)
  • the player rates (how likely each player is to score a goal, assist a goal, get a yellow card etc., assuming that player is on the pitch)
  • the playing probabilities (how likely each player is of playing each week)

Mathematical and Economic concepts such as Monte Carlo Simulation, Bivariate Poisson Distributions and the Efficient Market Hypothesis will be touched upon, as well as more simplistic concepts like Expectation and Conditional Probability; concepts that Fantasy players have intuitive notions of, even if they are not comfortable with the formal language/notation behind the ideas.

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