The Role of Conditioning in Predictive Regression

The Essex Centre for Macro and Financial Econometrics warmly invites you to join Professor Peter Boswijk from the University of Amsterdam to

  • Wed 22 May 19

    14:00 - 16:00

  • Colchester Campus


  • Event speaker

    Professor Peter Boswijk, Professor of Financial Economics, University of Amsterdam

  • Event type

    Lectures, talks and seminars
    Essex Centre for Macro and Financial Econometric Research Seminar Series

  • Event organiser

    Essex Business School

  • Contact details

    Dr Mark Hallam

The Essex Centre for Macro and Financial Economics is proud to host Professor Peter Boswijk from the University of Amsterdam who will be presenting his paper titled The Role of Conditioning in Predictive Regression as part of the centre's research seminar series

Seminar abstract

Predictive regressions are often applied to test the predictive power of economic variable for future asset returns. Inference in such regression is complicated by the fact that predictors may display persistent, near-unit root behaviour. 

In such cases, the null distribution of t-ratios is poorly approximated by the standard, normal and depends strongly on nuisance parameters. 

One approach to resolve this problem was developed by Jansson and Moreira (Econometrica, 2006), who analyse a likelihood conditional on the observed information, leading to a uniformly most powerful conditionally unbiased test.

This paper provides an explanation of the relatively low power of this test in Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the type of conditioning by Jansson and Moreira involves a loss of statistical information on the predictive parameter; we try to quantify this information loss and its dependence on the parameters.

This analysis favours unconditional, (approximately) similar tests, based on the concept of approximate least-favourable distributions (Elliott, Mueller and Watson, Econometrica, 2015).


This is free event. Bring your colleagues, friends and classmate along.

Speaker bio

Peter is Professor of Financial Econometrics in the Faculty of Economics and and Business at the University of Amsterdam and Fellow of the Tinbergen Institution.

His research focuses on;

Econometric theory

  • Unit roots and cointegration
  • asymptotic theory
  • semi(non) parametric and adaptive estimation and testing
  • continuous record asymptotics
  • bootsrap 

Financial econometrics

  • multivariate GARCH
  • stochastic volatility models
  • econometrics of option pricing
  • high-frequency data
  • bounded rationality