Join Dr Michael Arghyrou of Cardiff Business School as he discusses the relationship between private bank deposits and fiscal and macro risk in the Euro area
14:00 - 15:30
Dr Michael Arghyrou
Lectures, talks and seminars
Essex Business School
Nikolaos Vlastakis email@example.com
The seminar will examine the relationship between private bank deposits and fiscal/macro risk using a two-stage approach while accounting for the introduction of the Outright Transactions Programme in August 2012 and the first stage of the European Banking Union in November 2014 for European Monetary Union countries.
We investigate the relationship between private bank deposits and fiscal/macro risk in the euro area.
Our empirical analysis involves two stages:
We find significant time variation in the relationship between private bank deposits and their fiscal/macro determinants. We also find that this time variation is caused by changes in fiscal/macro risk, with increased fiscal/macro risk prompting deposits flight to safe banking heaven (Germany) and/or cash.
OMT has had a mainly positive effect on deposits in periphery EMU countries but a negative effect in core countries.
Finally, the introduction of EBU has caused a positive deposits effect in core countries but no significant effect in periphery countries.
Our findings suggest that the introduction of the presently incomplete EBU has increased deposits in the countries where an increase is most necessary, i.e. in the crisis-hit countries, and support the EBU’s completion through the introduction of a common European deposit insurance scheme.
No need to book! Just turn up. please invite colleagues and friends.
Michael (BSc, ASOEE; MSc, Queen Mary – London; PhD, Queen Mary - London) is a Reader in Economics at Cardiff Business School.
His research interests are international macroeconomics and finance. He has published numerous articles in journals of international reputation including the Canadian Journal of Economics, Oxford Economic Papers, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics and others.
He has also authored two research monographs relating to the Economics of the single currency.
He is internationally recognised as a leading expert in European economics, providing regular commentary to major international media including the BBC, CNN, Sky News, Voice of America, Bloomberg Radio, Washington Post, Reuters, ABC News, etc.
He also provides regular commentary and opinion articles to reputable Greek media. Michael is a member of the Research Fellows Network of the CESifo Group Munich.
He is also a member of the Scientific Board of the Institute of Democracy Konstantinos Karamanlis, Athens and a member of the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics.