Event

Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK

  • Tue 12 Dec 17

    14:00 - 15:30

  • Colchester Campus

    NTC 3.02

  • Event speaker

    Professor Ben Lauderdale, London School of Economics

  • Event type

    Lectures, talks and seminars
    IADS Seminar Series / Government Department Seminars

  • Event organiser

    Institute for Analytics and Data Science (IADS)

  • Contact details

    Daniel Karapetyan

The seminar is jointly organised by the Government Department and the Institute for Analytics and Data Science (IADS).

Professor Ben Lauderdale, London School of Economics

Abstract
We describe a strategy for applying multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methods to pre-election polling.  Using a combination of contemporaneous polling, census data, past election polling, past election results, as well as other sources of information, we are able to construct probabilistic, internally consistent estimates of national vote and the sub-national electoral districts that determine seats or electoral votes in many electoral systems. We report on the performance of three applications of the general framework conducted and publicly released in advance of the 2016 UK Referendum on EU Membership, the 2016 US Presidential Election, and the 2017 UK General Election.

No registration is required.

Tee/coffee will be provided.

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