People

Professor Paul Whiteley

Professor
Department of Government
Professor Paul Whiteley
  • Email

  • Telephone

    +44 (0) 1206 873567

  • Location

    5.024, Colchester Campus

  • Academic support hours

    Tuesdays 12:00 to 14:00

Profile

Biography

Fellow of the British Academy; Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences

Qualifications

  • BA(Econ) (Sheffield)

  • MA, PhD (Essex)

Research and professional activities

Research interests

Public Opinion

Electoral Behaviour

Political Economy

Political Methodology

Current research

British political parties

electoral behaviour

political economy

the comparative analysis of citizenship

Teaching and supervision

  • Political Behaviour (GV202)

  • Electoral Behaviour (GV303)

  • Public Opinion and Political Behaviour (GV917)

Publications

Chapters (11)

(2018). The Rise and Fall of UKIP 2010-2017. Britain at the Polls. Britain at the Polls

(2015). Social Capital. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences (Second Edition). International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences (Second Edition). 174. 180. 978-0-08-097087-5

(2014). Not Total Recall: Why People Lie about Voting. Sex, Lies & the Ballot Box 50 things you need to know about British elections. Sex, Lies & the Ballot Box 50 things you need to know about British elections. 9781849547550

(2014). Output-oriented Legitimacy: Individual- and System-level Influences on Democracy Satisfaction. Elections and Democracy: Representation and Accountability. Elections and Democracy: Representation and Accountability. 153. 180. 9780198716334

(2013). The decline of labour’s local party membership and electoral base, 1945-79. The Politics of the Labour Party. The Politics of the Labour Party. 111. 134. 9780203707579

(2008). Travel tips for students of electoral choice: The dynamics of partisanship in Britain and elsewhere. Political Parties and Partisanship: Social identity and individual attitudes. Political Parties and Partisanship: Social identity and individual attitudes. 9780415460965

(2008). What makes a Good Citizen? Citizenship Across the Democratic World. British Social Attitudes: the 24th Report. British Social Attitudes: the 24th Report. 9781412947749

(2004). From disaster to landslide: The case of the Britsh labour party. How Political Parties Respond: Interest Aggregation Revisited. How Political Parties Respond: Interest Aggregation Revisited. 41. 60. 0203324226

(2003). Emotions, expectations and the dynamics of party support in Britain. Economic Voting. Economic Voting

(2003). Economic growth and social capital. Poverty and Social Exclusion in North and South: Essays on Social Policy and Global Poverty Reduction. Poverty and Social Exclusion in North and South: Essays on Social Policy and Global Poverty Reduction. 123. 148. 0203987829

(1998). It's About Time: Modelling Political and Social Dynamics. Research Strategies in the Social Sciences: A Guide to New Approaches. Research Strategies in the Social Sciences: A Guide to New Approaches. 978-0-19-829238-8

Journals (115)

Whiteley, P., (2017). Beyond Party Members: Changing Approaches to Partisan Mobilization. PARTY POLITICS. 23 (2)

(2017). Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote. Parliamentary Affairs. 70 (3)

(2016). Globalization and Mass Politics: Retaining the Room to Maneuver. PERSPECTIVES ON POLITICS. 14 (1)

(2016). Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The Seats-Votes model. Electoral Studies. 41

(2016). Why Do Voters Lose Trust in Governments? Public Perceptions of Government Honesty and Trustworthiness in Britain 2000–2013. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations. 18 (1)

Whiteley, P., (2016). Why Did the Polls Get It Wrong in the 2015 General Election? Evaluating the Inquiry into Pre-Election Polls. The Political Quarterly. 87 (3)

(2016). What explains electoral responses to the 'Great Recession in Europe?. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics. 1 (1)

(2016). Hunting the Snark: A Reply to ?Re-Evaluating Valence Models of Political Choice?. Political Science Research and Methods. 4 (01)

(2016). Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 26 (2)

(2015). Valence politics and voting in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Electoral Studies. 40

(2015). Should 16-Year-Olds Be Allowed to Vote in Westminster Elections? Public Opinion and Electoral Franchise Reform. Parliamentary Affairs. 68 (2)

(2015). The Economic and Electoral Consequences of Austerity Policies in Britain. Parliamentary Affairs. 68 (1)

(2014). Does Citizenship Education Work? Evidence from a Decade of Citizenship Education in Secondary Schools in England. Parliamentary Affairs. 67 (3)

(2014). Does regulation make political parties more popular? A multi-level analysis of party support in Europe. International Political Science Review. 35 (3)

(2014). Prudence, Principle and Minimal Heuristics: British Public Opinion toward the Use of Military Force in Afghanistan and Libya. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations. 16 (1)

(2013). The emerging political economy of austerity in Britain. Electoral Studies. 32 (3)

(2013). Leader heuristics, political knowledge and voting in Britain's AV referendum. Electoral Studies. 32 (2)

(2012). Economic Performance and Higher Education: The Lessons for Britain. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations. 14 (4)

(2012). Britain Says NO: Voting in the AV Ballot Referendum. Parliamentary Affairs. 65 (2)

(2011). Is the party over? The decline of party activism and membership across the democratic world. Party Politics. 17 (1)

(2011). Response to David Hugh-Jones. Parliamentary Affairs. 64 (4)

(2011). Yes we can! Valence politics and electoral choice in America, 2008. Electoral Studies. 30 (3)

(2011). Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model. Electoral Studies. 30 (2)

(2011). Downs, Stokes and the Dynamics of Electoral Choice. British Journal of Political Science. 41 (02)

(2011). Simulating the Effects of the Alternative Vote in the 2010 UK General Election. Parliamentary Affairs. 64 (1)

(2011). Downs, Stokes and the Dynamics of Electoral Choice. British Journal of Political Science. 41 (02)

(2011). Valence Politics and Electoral Choice in Britain, 2010. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. 21 (2)

(2010). The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign. Electoral Studies. 29 (4)

(2010). Government Performance and Life Satisfaction in Contemporary Britain. The Journal of Politics. 72 (3)

(2010). Polling and forecasting the general election of 2010. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MARKET RESEARCH. 52 (5)

(2010). Do Institutions really influence political participation? Contextual influences on turnout and participation in the world's democracies. International Journal of Market Research. 52 (1)

(2010). Can Labour Win?. Political Insight. 1 (1)

(2009). The American voter's British cousin. Electoral Studies. 28 (4)

(2009). Where Have All the Members Gone? The Dynamics of Party Membership in Britain. Parliamentary Affairs. 62 (2)

(2009). GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN BRITAIN. Representation. 45 (3)

(2008). Evaluating rival forecasting models of the 2005 general election in Britain – An encompassing experiment. Electoral Studies. 27 (4)

(2008). The Endogeneity of Preferences in Spatial Models: Evidence from the 2005 British Election Study. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. 18 (4)

(2008). Internet Surveys and National Election Studies: A Symposium. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. 18 (4)

(2007). Does Mode Matter For Modeling Political Choice? Evidence From the 2005 British Election Study. Political Analysis. 15 (03)

(2006). Modeling Electoral Choice in Europe in the Twenty-First Century: An Introduction. Electoral Studies. 25 (3)

(2005). Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations. 7 (2)

(2005). Studies in Public Opinion: Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error, and Change. Perspectives on Politics. 3 (03)

(2005). The Issue Agenda and Voting in 2005. Parliamentary Affairs. 58 (4)

(2004). Reinventing Political Activism. Government and Opposition. 39 (4)

(2004). British Party Members. Party Politics. 10 (4)

(2004). British party members - An overview. PARTY POLITICS. 10 (4)

(2003). Britain (Not) at the Polls, 2001. Political Science and Politics. 36 (01)

(2003). Party Election Campaigning in Britain. Party Politics. 9 (5)

(2003). Citizenship and Civic Engagement: Attitudes and Behaviour in Britain. Political Studies. 51 (3)

(2003). Civic Attitudes and Engagement in Modern Britain. Parliamentary Affairs. 56 (4)

(2003). How to win a landslide by really trying: the effects of local campaigning on voting in the 1997 British general election. Electoral Studies. 22 (2)

(2003). The Dynamics of Protest in Britain, 2000-2002. Parliamentary Affairs. 56 (4)

(2003). The State of Participation in Britain. Parliamentary Affairs. 56 (4)

(2001). Citizenship in Britain: Attitudes and Behaviour. The Political Quarterly. 72 (s1)

(2001). the 2001 general election in britain. European Political Science. 1 (1)

(2001). Turnout. Parliamentary Affairs. 54 (4)

(2001). The Economy and Voting. Parliamentary Affairs. 54 (4)

(2000). Economic growth and social capital. Political Studies. 48 (3)

(1998). New Models for New Labour: The Political Economy of Labour Party Support, January 1992–April 1997. American Political Science Review. 92 (03)

(1998). Labour's grassroots campaign in 1997. British Elections & Parties Review. 8 (1)

(1998). The Dynamics of Party Activism in Britain: A Spiral of Demobilization?. British Journal of Political Science. 28 (1)

(1997). Tory Trends: Party Identification and the Dynamics of Conservative Support Since 1992. British Journal of Political Science. 27 (2)

(1997). The Conservative Campaign. Parliamentary Affairs. 50 (4)

(1996). L'évolution récente des adhérents du Parti conservateur et du Parti travailliste en Grande-Bretagne. Revue française de science politique. 46 (6)

(1995). Rational Choice and Political Participation. Evaluating the Debate. Political Research Quarterly. 48 (1)

(1995). Labour and conservative party members:cHange over time. Parliamentary Affairs. 48 (3)

(1994). Thatcherism and the Conservative Party. Political Studies. 42 (2)

(1994). Local Party Campaigning and Electoral Mobilization in Britain. The Journal of Politics. 56 (1)

(1994). Explaining Party Activism: The Case of the British Conservative Party. British Journal of Political Science. 24 (01)

(1994). Measuring Local Campaign Effects: Labour Party Constituency Campaigning at the 1987 General Election. Political Studies. 42 (3)

(1994). The influence of local campaigning on the conservative vote in the 1992 general election. British Elections and Parties Yearbook. 4 (1)

(1992). Labour's Vote and Local Activism: The Impact of Local Constituency Campaigns.. Parliamentary Affairs. 45 (4)

(1992). Performance and promise: Studying the dynamics of party support in British elections. British Elections and Parties Yearbook. 2 (1)

(1990). Political Influences on Monetary Policy 1914-84. Governance. 3 (4)

(1990). Recapturing the Falklands: Models of Conservative Popularity, 1979–83. British Journal of Political Science. 20 (01)

(1990). Perceptions of macroeconomic performance, government support and Conservative Party strategy in Britain 1983-1987. European Journal of Political Research. 18 (1)

(1990). PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL, PARTISANSHIP AND THE ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM THE 1984 CONTINUOUS MONITORING SURVEY IN THE US. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. 2 (3)

(1989). Paul F. Whiteley and Stephen J. Winyard, Pressure for the Poor. The Poverty Lobby and Policy Making, Methuen, London, 1987. 174 pp. £25.00.. Journal of Social Policy. 18 (03)

(1988). Autocracy.. The Economic Journal. 98 (391)

(1988). The Causal Relationships between Issues, Candidate Evaluations, Party Identification, and Vote Choice--the View From "Rolling Thunder". The Journal of Politics. 50 (4)

(1988). The poverty lobby in British politics. Parliamentary Affairs. 41 (2)

(1988). Party incumbency and economic growth in the United States: 1929 to 1984. Political Behavior. 10 (4)

(1987). Paul F. Whiteley and Stephen J. Wingard, Pressure For The Poor: The Poverty Lobby and Policy Making. London: Methuen, 1987, pp. 174. Journal of Public Policy. 7 (04)

(1987). Political Control of the Macroeconomy: The Political Economy of Public Policy Making.. The Economic Journal. 97 (387)

(1986). Macroeconomic performance and government popularity in Britain: the short run dynamics. European Journal of Political Research. 14 (1-2)

(1986). Anatomy of the SDP: Is the Party Structurally Top‐Heavy?. Government and Opposition. 21 (02)

(1986). Predicting the Labour Vote in 1983: Social Backgrounds versus Subjective Evaluations. Political Studies. 34 (1)

(1984). Perceptions of economic performance and voting behavior in the 1983 general election in Britain. Political Behavior. 6 (4)

(1984). The Origins of the ‘New Poverty Lobby’. Political Studies. 32 (1)

(1984). Inflation, unemployment and government popularity—Dynamic models for the United States, Britain and West Germany. Electoral Studies. 3 (1)

(1984). Can the Alliance Replace Labour as the Main Party of Opposition?. Politics. 4 (1)

(1983). The Political Economy of Economic Growth. European Journal of Political Research. 11 (2)

(1983). Influencing Social Policy: The Effectiveness of the Poverty Lobby in Britain. Journal of Social Policy. 12 (01)

(1983). INFLUENCING SOCIAL-POLICY - THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE POVERTY LOBBY IN BRITAIN. JOURNAL OF SOCIAL POLICY. 12 (JAN)

(1982). Reply to McLean. Political Studies. 30 (2)

(1981). Public Opinion and the Demand for Social Welfare in Britain. Journal of Social Policy. 10 (04)

(1981). WHO ARE THE LABOUR ACTIVISTS ?. The Political Quarterly. 52 (2)

(1981). PUBLIC-OPINION AND THE DEMAND FOR SOCIAL-WELFARE IN BRITAIN. JOURNAL OF SOCIAL POLICY. 10 (OCT)

(1981). Swings and Roundabouts: An Ecological Analysis of the European and General Election Results in Great Britain. Political Studies. 29 (4)

(1980). A Comment on ‘The Incidence of Coloured Populations and Support for the National Front’. British Journal of Political Science. 10 (02)

(1980). A Reply to Webb. British Journal of Political Science. 10 (02)

(1980). Time series analysis. Quality and Quantity. 14 (1)

(1980). Comment: Johnston on Campaign Expenditure and the Efficacy of Advertising. Political Studies. 28 (2)

(1980). ELECTORAL FORECASTING FROM POLL DATA - REPLY. BRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE. 10 (APR)

(1980). A COMMENT ON THE INCIDENCE OF COLORED POPULATIONS AND SUPPORT FOR THE NATIONAL FRONT. BRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE. 10 (APR)

(1979). Electoral Forecasting from Poll Data: The British Case. British Journal of Political Science. 9 (02)

(1979). The National Front Vote in the 1977 GLC Elections: An Aggregate Data Analysis. British Journal of Political Science. 9 (03)

(1979). NATIONAL FRONT VOTE IN THE 1977 GLC ELECTIONS - AGGREGATE DATA-ANALYSIS. BRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE. 9 (JUL)

(1979). ELECTORAL FORECASTING FROM POLL DATA - BRITISH CASE. BRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE. 9 (APR)

(1979). Social Class and Political Attitudes: The Case of Labour Councillors. Political Studies. 27 (1)

(1978). The Structure of Democratic Socialist Ideology in Britain. Political Studies. 26 (2)

(1977). The Political Ideology of Labour Councillors. Policy & Politics. 5 (4)

(1976). Bayesian Statistics and Political Recruitment: A Comment. British Journal of Political Science. 6 (01)

(1976). BAYESIAN STATISTICS AND POLITICAL RECRUITMENT - COMMENT. BRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE. 6 (JAN)

The 'Beeching Axe' and Electoral Support in Britain. European Review of Economic History

Conferences (1)

(2017). The Rhetoric and Reality of Austerity: Electoral Politics in Britain 2010 to 2015

Other (1)

(2014).The Economic and Electoral Consequences of Austerity Policies in Britain

Books (21)

(2011).Political Participation in Britain The Decline and Revival of Civic Culture. Palgrave Macmillan. 0230358497. 9780230358492

(2009).Performance politics and the British voter. 9780511596872

(2002).High-intensity Participation The Dynamics of Party Activism in Britain. University of Michigan Press. 0472106201. 9780472106202

(2002).New Labour’s Grassroots The Transformation of the Labour Party Membership. Springer. 0230599214. 9780230599215

(1996).Labour and Conservative Party Members 1990-92 Social Characteristics, Political Attitudes, and Activities. Dartmouth Publishing Company

(1994).True Blues : The Politics of Conservative Party Membership The Politics of Conservative Party Membership. Oxford University Press, USA. 0191544418. 9780191544415

(1994).The challenge of European integration internal and external problems of trade and money. Westview Pr

(1992).Labour's Grass Roots The Politics of Party Membership. Oxford University Press. 0198273584. 9780198273585

(1992).Controversies in political economy Canada, Great Britain, the United States. Westview Pr

(1990).How Voters Change The 1987 British Election Campaign in Perspective. Oxford University Press

(1987).Pressure for the Poor The Poverty Lobby and Policy Making. Taylor & Francis. 0416363709. 9780416363708

(1987).Coping with the economic crisis alternative responses to economic recession in advanced industrial societies. Sage Publications Ltd

(1986).Politcal Control of the Macroeconomy. Sage

(1983).The Labour Party in Crisis. Taylor & Francis. 0416338704. 9780416338706

(1983).Data analysis and the social sciences

(1980).Models of political economy. London ; Beverly Hills : Sage Publications

Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union. Cambridge University Press

Advanced Statistical Methods in Economics. Holt, Rinehart and Winston

Economic Policy: International Library of Comparative Public Policy, Volumes I and II. Edward Elgar

Economic Policy: International Library of Comparative Public Policy, Volumes I and II. Edward Elgar

Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union

Grants and funding

2017

A proposal for studying the 2017 General Election in Britain

The British Academy

2013

Public Opinion and the Syrian Crisis in Three Democracies

Economic & Social Research Council

2010

Citizens in Transition

Economic & Social Research Council

2008

British Election Study 2009

Economic & Social Research Council

Contact

whiteley@essex.ac.uk
+44 (0) 1206 873567

Location:

5.024, Colchester Campus

Academic support hours:

Tuesdays 12:00 to 14:00