Global House Prices since 1950 by Roman Sustek

Join us for this week's Macroeconomics Research Seminar, Autumn Term 2025.

Roman Sustek, from Queen Mary, University of London, will present this week's Macroeconomics seminar on Global House Prices since 1950.

Abstract

What drives house prices? Applying a parsimonious model to house prices in 12 countries since 1950, we show that expectations about future fundamentals were the key driver behind major house price movements. In the model, house prices depend on the expected future housing stock, population, income per capita, and age distribution. The growth rates of these fundamentals contain persistent components, estimated from data, affecting expectations. The model quantitatively accounts for the spectacular boom and bust in Japan, the boom starting in many countries in early 1990s, and the house price cycles in Switzerland. A decomposition into the contributing factors is carried out.

This seminar will be held on campus in 5B.307 at 1.30pm on Tuesday, 25 November 2025. This event is open to all levels of study and is also open to the public. To register your place, please contact the seminar organisers.

This event is part of the Macroeconomics Research Seminar Series.