Research

Political impact of war on Iraq

Will Tony Blair's popularity increase or decrease as the aftermath of the war on Iraq unfolds? How will people view the Labour party now that war has been waged? These are just some of the questions to be addressed in a new study conducted by researchers in the Department of Government.

Professors David Sanders and Paul Whiteley have been awarded an Economic and Social Research Council grant to investigate the impact of the war on Iraq on the British electorate's economic perceptions and political preferences.

Professor Paul Whiteley

The researchers will conduct and analyse a series of surveys on members of the public between March and September 2003. Previous studies of 'big events' like wars or economic crises suggest that people change their political, and sometimes their economic, views as the 'event' unfolds. The main aims of this study are to explain why people change their views of conflicts and to explore how these changes in perceptions relate to other political and economic perceptions, such as voting intentions and evaluations of the major parties and their leaders.

In looking at the war itself, Professors Sanders and Whiteley are hoping to answer two main broad questions: how far do people's reactions to the war represent rational calculations about its costs and benefits; and how far do people's reactions reflect 'idealist' or 'realist' views of the character of international politics.

Professor Sanders said: 'We anticipate that the war will will be over by September. If it is, then we will have representative surveys that record the British public's views of the conflict before, during and after hostilities.'

He added: 'One interesting feature of the research design is that we are also conducting an important methodological experiment in survey research, which involves comparing the results of a 'traditional' telephone survey and a specially commissioned internet survey.'

Scientists brief media on Iraq oil fires

An Essex biologist was among three scientists who briefed the national media about the health risks and environmental effects of oil fires and spills resulting from the war in Iraq.

Head of Biological Sciences, Professor Ian Colbeck, an expert on air pollution, explained the health impacts of oil fires around Baghdad to 12 journalists at a special briefing at the Royal Institution in London, organised by the Science Media Centre.

Reporters from the Independent, Express and Reuters plus four BBC journalists were among those who took the opportunity to question the speakers, helping them to prepare news and feature items informed by greater understanding of the scientific issues.

Professor Colbeck said: 'I found it extremely useful talking, not only with the journalists where they are more interested in how pollution levels would compare with London and the indications as to the possible number of air pollution deaths, but also fellow 'experts'. 'Scientists have a responsibility to promote a more balanced, accurate and rational coverage of the controversial science stories that now regularly hit the headlines. This is of particular concern at times of heightened public concern about science.'

The other speakers were James Readman, Professor of Biogeochemistry, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, who studies the behaviour and impact of pollutants in estuarine and coastal environments, and who authored a key Nature paper on the Environmental Effects of the Gulf War, and David Salt, Technical Director of Oil Spill Response Limited, who has 29 years experience in the oil industry.

Also in the printed May of Wyvern:

• European project for Archive
• Analysing robot behaviour