Abstract - Rakow, T., & Miler, K. (2009). Doomed to repeat the successes of the past: History is best forgotten for repeated choices with non-stationary payoffs. Memory and Cognition, 37, 985-1000.

Many everyday tasks involve repeated choices where past outcomes are used to estimate payoffs, but where current payoffs may differ from past ones. Two experiments with ten decision problems employing the decisions-from-feedback paradigm examined the choice between two risky options, where the payoff probabilities for one option could change over a sequence of trials. Participants either saw the outcomes associated with each option, or additionally were given a “history” summarising the outcomes of previous trials. Participants adapted quickly to new problems, but adapted slowly to payoff changes. Providing a history improved initial choices, but had a null or negative impact upon later ones – though, appropriately, the summary received less weight in later trials. An associative choice model captured changes in preference, but not initial patterns of choice. The findings emphasise the adaptive value of forgetting in unstable decision environments, but illustrate how providing additional relevant information may hinder this.


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