THE assassination of
Akhmad Kadyrov, the
pro-Russian President
of Chechnya, and the
serious injury to the
Russian commanding
general in the
war-torn province bear
the hallmarks of the
kind of operation that
is typical of
al-Qaeda.
It also
demonstrates to Moscow
and to the rest of the
world that President
Putin’s claim that the
Chechen war is over
and that the area has
been largely pacified
is far from true.
With the killing of
a man whose election
was engineered by
Moscow in an attempt
to give international
legitimacy to the
puppet government in
Grozny, Russia now
faces a political
vacuum. This will make
its attempt to
extricate itself from
the Chechen quagmire
immensely more
difficult. The timing
of the bomb blast is
of enormous
significance.
It came on the
anniversary of VE Day,
which is always a
solemn occasion in
Russia. On this day
the country remembers
its victory over Nazi
Germany and the 20
million war dead. The
focus since Soviet
times has been on the
Armed Forces, which
are honoured for their
heroism. To choose
this day to humiliate
Russia’s army in the
centre of Grozny was a
deliberate show of
defiance in the face
of years of
heavy-handed military
operations in
Chechnya.
The daring and
expertise in placing a
bomb right beneath the
VIP stand at Grozny
stadium suggests
meticulous planning.
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Mr Putin has long
insisted that the
Chechen rebels are
backed by Islamist
extremists from
abroad, and recently
Moscow has produced
evidence that some
Chechen leaders have
been working in close
co-ordination with
al-Qaeda.
Washington, though
concerned at Russia’s
tactics in Chechnya,
has classified the
separatists as part of
the anti-Western
Islamist terrorist
movement. The
explosion is almost
certainly the promised
revenge for the
Russian murder of
Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev,
the exiled Chechen
militant who was blown
up in his car in Qatar
in February.
The Qatari
authorities have
blamed Russian special
forces for the
killing, and are to
put two Russian
intelligence officers
on trial later this
month for the
assassination.
Russia has denied
responsibility, but
has made it clear that
it does not regret Mr
Yandarbiyev’s death.
The killing of
President Kadyrov was
a top priority for the
rebels, who have not
forgiven the former
separatist leader for
throwing in his lot
with the Russians.
Islamist militants see
that as tantamount to
apostasy, for which
the penalty is death.
Mr Kadyrov was a
Muslim imam and rebel
commander during the
first Chechen war in
1994-96, but became
disenchanted with the
rebels and complained
of the growing
influence of the
puritanical Wahhabi
sect in Chechnya. He
broke with Aslan
Maskhadov, the elected
President now in
hiding with the
rebels, and in 2000
the Russians appointed
him the senior
civilian
administrator. His
election as President
in October was widely
criticised as
fraudulent, and he was
particularly hated as
his son Ramzan heads
one of the most feared
private security
forces, held
responsible for a
string of civilian
disappearances and
kidnappings.
Mr Kadyrov had
survived several
assassination
attempts, but as long
as he was in power,
Moscow maintained that
normality had returned
to Chechnya. Sergei
Abramov, the Prime
Minister, was named
yesterday as acting
President.
Russia insisted
yesterday that it
would not change
course in Chechnya,
and Mr Putin has
repeatedly said that
there will be no talks
or negotiations with
the separatists. But
although his
popularity remains
extremely high and his
tough line on Chechnya
is widely supported,
the festering problem
blights a range of
policies.
It will make it
harder for Mr Putin to
push through urgent
military reform or to
instil a greater
degree of
professionalism in the
army. With tens of
thousands of people
killed already by the
conflict, and a steady
stream of military
losses, it is
beginning to strain
even Russia’s ability
to absorb casualties.
The comparisons with
Afghanistan are
already being made.
The conflict has
bolstered the
influence of
authoritarians and
former KGB off icials
in the Kremlin, led to
a curb on the press
and is a source of
strain in Russia’s
relations with the
West.